Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 5.544651 6.606864 7.782074 9.173781 10.771651 12.543471 14.651286
2025-02-16 3.616982 4.940973 6.575300 8.717993 11.427452 14.712094 18.964362
2025-02-23 2.472966 3.824775 5.664131 8.296153 11.902903 16.601932 23.103598
2025-03-02 1.739765 3.020009 4.923656 7.866886 12.188799 18.170417 26.911236
2025-03-09 1.328170 2.558563 4.537648 7.808738 12.900003 20.306513 31.619015
2025-03-16 1.015160 2.162744 4.151676 7.649036 13.388027 22.116364 35.976206
2025-03-23 0.873699 2.026474 4.152141 8.082990 14.811497 25.408925 42.752513
2025-03-30 0.718626 1.819474 3.981246 8.184627 15.683834 27.901654 48.483553
2025-04-06 0.587308 1.622791 3.785764 8.199868 16.390532 30.164615 53.998381
2025-04-13 0.479481 1.445530 3.589602 8.174018 17.004172 32.302142 59.440637
2025-04-20 0.444174 1.431579 3.725751 8.804263 18.857956 36.656645 68.804187
2025-04-27 0.387092 1.345035 3.686943 9.072003 20.053999 39.953297 76.590928
2025-05-04 0.338672 1.271059 3.670728 9.401506 21.435332 43.740590 85.578136
2025-05-11 0.277711 1.140277 3.495196 9.365027 22.100027 46.304568 92.640632
2025-05-18 0.216868 0.985099 3.223599 9.068463 22.200492 47.832037 97.964262
2025-05-25 0.164729 0.834660 2.926241 8.657998 22.006499 48.773646 102.271350
2025-06-01 0.134581 0.750397 2.790427 8.613789 22.587302 51.239027 109.526540
2025-06-08 0.106972 0.661584 2.618205 8.446844 22.871577 53.130511 115.805851
2025-06-15 0.098297 0.651755 2.687160 8.921335 24.659983 58.160475 128.349895
2025-06-22 0.083489 0.605024 2.625866 9.032771 25.608853 61.527273 137.839889
2025-06-29 0.069467 0.553698 2.535950 9.049673 26.331945 64.468709 146.649657
2025-07-06 0.057182 0.503477 2.436267 9.021680 26.940241 67.203068 155.188152
2025-07-13 0.055541 0.516025 2.570868 9.706798 29.380495 74.004307 172.227491